Monty Hall Paradox


Kurt Bouwhuis, Mackinac Center Intern

Suppose you’re on a game show and you’re given the choice of three doors. Behind one door is a car; behind the others, goats. The car and the goats were placed randomly behind the doors before the show. The rules of the game show are as follows: After you have chosen a door, the door remains closed for the time being. The game show host, Monty Hall, who knows what is behind the doors, now has to open one of the two remaining doors, and the door he opens must have a goat behind it. If both remaining doors have goats behind them, he chooses one randomly. After Monty Hall opens a door with a goat, he will ask you to decide whether you want to stay with your first choice or to switch to the last remaining door.

What would you do?

Correct Answer: You choose to switch doors because you initial choice only has a 33.33% chance of holding a car, while the other door has 66.66% chance. Don’t believe me, click here.

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