Kurt Bouwhuis, Mackinac Center Intern
This clip demonstrates that perhaps a crowd of “uneducated” people will be better at predicting futures than the experts. Intrade, a website which hosts a slue of future markets, has had impressive results. Intrade hosts future markets which are valued between $0.00 and $1.00. $0.00 = 0% while $1.00 = 100%. Users of this website use real money and invest in futures ranging from politics to the predictions of the stock market. An example of a market follows: A market for Barrack Obama to win the presidency was recently on the website. If he were valued at $0.80, that means that the aggregation of people believe Obama has an 80% chance to win the election. This would leave McCain at 20%. Lets say I invest 100 shares in McCain. If he ends up winning (which we now know is false), I would profit $0.80 per share. It’s a neet utility that seems to have some useful applications. Check it out!